The future of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is a subject of considerable debate, especially as the global automotive industry increasingly shifts toward electric vehicles (EVs). While the momentum for EV adoption is undeniable, ICE vehicles are unlikely to be entirely phased out in the near future due to various technological, economic, and infrastructural factors.
Countries like Norway and China are leading the charge in EV adoption. In Norway, for instance, 88.9% of new car sales in 2024 were electric vehicles, making it the first country where annual sales of all-electric cars outsold ICE vehicles. China, the world’s largest automotive market, saw 22% of passenger vehicles sold in 2022 being all-electric, totaling 4.4 million units. These figures highlight a significant shift toward electrification in certain regions.
Despite these advancements, ICE vehicles continue to dominate in many parts of the world. In the United States, for example, EVs accounted for only 6% of new car sales in 2022. Factors such as limited charging infrastructure, higher upfront costs of EVs, and range anxiety contribute to the slower adoption rates. Moreover, in regions with unreliable electricity supply or where the grid is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, the environmental benefits of EVs may be less pronounced.
Automakers are making significant commitments to electrification. General Motors aims to sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035, and Volvo plans to be fully electric by 2030. However, companies like Stellantis acknowledge that ICE vehicles will remain on the roads for decades. They are exploring synthetic e-fuels as a transitional solution, which can power existing ICE vehicles with reduced carbon emissions.
Governments worldwide are implementing policies to accelerate the transition to EVs. The European Union has approved a law mandating zero CO₂ emissions for new cars and vans by 2035. However, exceptions for vehicles running on e-fuels indicate a recognition of the challenges in achieving a complete phase-out of ICE vehicles in the near term.
The cost of EVs remains a barrier for many consumers. While prices are gradually decreasing, ICE vehicles often remain more affordable, especially in developing countries. Additionally, the resale value of ICE vehicles and the existing investments in ICE manufacturing and maintenance infrastructure contribute to their continued prevalence.
The Continued Relevance of ICE Vehicles
Despite the push towards electrification, ICE vehicles are unlikely to disappear entirely any time soon. They will continue to serve regions lacking EV infrastructure and cater to specific use cases where electric technology is currently less viable. Furthermore, advancements in making ICE vehicles more efficient and environmentally friendly will prolong their relevance in the global automotive landscape.
The automotive industry is undergoing a transformative shift towards electrification, driven by environmental concerns, technological advancements, and policy initiatives. While electric vehicles are poised to play a dominant role in the future of transportation, internal combustion engine vehicles will not be entirely phased out in the immediate future. Their continued presence will depend on regional factors, technological developments, and the pace at which infrastructure and consumer preferences evolve.
